GLP-1 and new consumption models: how product development is changing in the food industry.

Article by: Luigi Consiglio, CEO of Eccellenze d'Impresa, and Lucrezia Scopelliti, COO of Eccellenze d'Impresa.

For many years, innovation meant improving what already existed.

Better, more affordable and more convenient products, with more appealing packaging or a more competitive price. Product development followed a relatively simple principle: observe the market and respond to consumers’ expressed needs.

Today, this logic is no longer enough.

Data from the United States, China and India show that food preferences are changing at an unprecedented pace. Demand for products rich in protein and fibre is growing, carbohydrate consumption is declining, and interest in beverages with low or no alcohol and sugar content is increasing. At the same time, health, longevity and well-being are becoming increasingly important purchasing criteria.

Among all the phenomena accelerating this transformation, one deserves particular attention: the spread of GLP-1 medications.

For many, they represent a therapeutic revolution in the treatment of obesity and diabetes.

For an entrepreneur, they represent something even more important: tangible proof of how quickly consumer behaviour can change and, consequently, how rapidly product development priorities can shift.

A change that is here to stay

According to Boston Consulting Group, the number of active GLP-1 medication users in the United States increased from approximately 6 million in 2022 to 16 million in 2026 and could reach 32 million by 2030.

This growth is not linked to a temporary phenomenon, but to structural factors that will make these therapies accessible to an increasing number of people. On the one hand, a growing number of health insurers are beginning to reimburse their cost, reducing one of the main barriers to access. On the other, the arrival of oral formulations as alternatives to current injections could encourage even broader adoption.

These factors are accompanied by a gradual reduction in prices, driven by increased supply and competition, and by the expansion of therapeutic indications, thanks to scientific evidence demonstrating benefits not only in the treatment of obesity and diabetes, but also in the prevention and management of other chronic conditions.

The scientific community now also considers GLP-1 medications to be among the most significant innovations of recent decades. The World Health Organization has initiated the process of including them among the essential medicines for the treatment of obesity.

All these indicators suggest that the phenomenon is set to grow.

Why these medications are changing consumer behaviour

The central issue is not only that GLP-1 medications reduce appetite, but that they directly affect the mechanisms that guide consumption choices.

As Professor Robert Kushner of Northwestern University explains, these medications mimic a natural hormone produced by the intestine and act on communication between the gut and the brain. In this way, they reduce hunger, increase the feeling of fullness and lessen what is known as food noise, meaning the constant presence of food-related thoughts and impulses.

For businesses, this means that not only the quantity consumed changes, but also purchasing frequency, basket composition, the value attributed to different categories and the criteria consumers use when choosing a product.

When impulsive desire decreases and attention to well-being increases, categories built around immediate gratification lose strength, while products capable of offering tangible benefits, such as satiety, protein intake, fibre and metabolic health, become more relevant.

It is not only how much people eat that changes. What they choose to buy changes as well.

The consequences of this transformation emerge clearly when observing the shopping basket.

GLP-1 users consume approximately 30% fewer calories, eat 20% fewer meals and reduce snacking by almost 40%. However, the most significant change does not concern the quantity of food consumed, but the quality of the choices made.

The categories growing the most are foods perceived as supporting well-being: fruit and vegetables (+15%), protein (+11%), high-protein products (+11%), fibre (+10%) and functional foods (+8%). At the same time, purchases of confectionery, snacks, sugary drinks, baked goods, alcohol and frozen ready meals are declining.

This evolution reflects a deeper change in eating habits.

For years, the value of a product was associated primarily with taste, convenience or premium positioning. Today, consumers are placing increasing importance on the benefits that a food can provide. Protein, fibre, gut health, satiety and metabolic well-being are becoming increasingly relevant purchasing criteria.

Consumers are not simply looking for higher-quality food, but for food that makes a tangible contribution to their well-being. It is precisely this shift in value that makes it necessary to rethink product development priorities.

From premium to functional

For many years, a significant part of competition in the food industry took place in the premium segment. The value of a product was often associated with higher perceived quality: selected ingredients, sophisticated recipes, the origin of raw materials, distinctive packaging or high-end positioning.

Today, a different logic is emerging.

GLP-1 users are approximately twice as likely to choose functional products over premium products.

The difference is substantial.

A premium product promises a better experience; a functional product promises a tangible benefit. It is not chosen only because it is perceived as tastier or more exclusive, but because it meets a specific need: increasing protein intake, promoting satiety, improving gut health, increasing fibre consumption or supporting metabolic well-being.

Value, therefore, no longer lies solely in the perceived quality of the product, but increasingly in its ability to contribute to personal well-being.

For businesses, this represents a far-reaching change. While innovation once meant creating tastier or more premium products, today it means designing foods capable of delivering recognisable and measurable nutritional benefits. This is where an increasing share of competition will take place in the coming years.

A new product ecosystem is emerging

The transformation does not concern only what people put on their plates.

It is creating an ecosystem of products and services designed to support people following these therapies and, more broadly, those adopting a lifestyle focused on well-being.

The categories experiencing the strongest growth are those related to nutrition and health: protein (+24%), fibre (+22%), collagen (+20%), multivitamins (+18%), electrolytes (+18%) and probiotics (+15%).

These are not isolated phenomena.

Supplements, functional foods, high-protein beverages and specialised nutritional solutions are becoming part of an increasingly integrated offering, in which value does not derive from a single product, but from the ability to respond to a new consumer need.

Innovation, therefore, no longer consists only of launching a new product line, but of designing a system of products capable of accompanying consumers throughout a journey towards health and well-being.

A change that extends beyond the individual consumer

The impact of GLP-1 medications is not limited to changing what people eat; it also changes how they spend. The savings resulting from lower food consumption are redistributed: approximately one third finances the medication, one third is saved, and the remaining third shifts towards other consumption categories, such as clothing, beauty, cosmetics, fitness, wearables, supplements and well-being services. By contrast, restaurants, fast food, snacks and calorie-dense foods are among the sectors most exposed to this transformation.

Moreover, the phenomenon extends far beyond those undergoing treatment. Approximately 70% of households change their eating habits when one family member uses a GLP-1 medication, increasing the overall impact from 16 million to approximately 24 million consumers. Even after treatment is discontinued, between 20% and 40% of healthy behaviours tend to become established over time.

It is not only the food market that is changing: consumption patterns and the distribution of household spending are undergoing a structural transformation.

The real challenge is to rethink product development

For decades, competitive advantage in the food industry was built around three fundamental drivers: taste, price and convenience. These will continue to be essential elements, but on their own they will no longer be sufficient to guide consumer choices.

The evolution of consumption patterns suggests that value will increasingly shift towards products capable of offering tangible and recognisable nutritional benefits: higher protein and fibre intake, support for gut health, a stronger sense of satiety, metabolic well-being and better hydration.

For businesses, this means rethinking the very way innovation is carried out. It will not be enough to introduce a new “high-protein” product line or enrich a product with a functional ingredient. The entire product development process will need to be reconsidered: from formulation and ingredient selection to positioning and communication, through to investments in research and development.

The real challenge will not be to design different foods, but to design foods capable of responding to the new needs of consumers who increasingly associate the value of food with health and well-being.

Anticipating the market, not chasing it

GLP-1 medications represent only the most visible sign of a much broader change.

They are not changing a single product category; they are changing consumer behaviour. And consumer behaviour is always what determines which products will succeed in the coming years.

As happened with e-commerce and artificial intelligence, businesses that are the first to interpret this transformation will have the opportunity to capture new market spaces and build competitive advantages that are difficult to replicate.

Those that continue to design products based on past consumption habits risk arriving too late, when the market has already changed direction.

For entrepreneurs, therefore, the real question is not whether consumption patterns will continue to evolve, but whether their product development strategy is already designed for tomorrow’s consumer or is still responding to the needs of yesterday’s.

Sources:

• Northwestern University – Robert F. Kushner – A Primer on GLP-1 Medications.
• World Health Organization – The Selection and Use of Essential Medicines.
• ING Research – Transformative or Overhyped? The Impact of Weight-Loss Drugs on European Food Demand.
• AIRC – GLP-1, obesità e rischio di tumori: cosa sappiamo oggi.
• Boston Consulting Group – GLP-1 Consumer Insights.