A new agriculture for a more just and sustainable world

Italy, with its unique characteristics, can be a model for many countries

Sustainably feed 9 billion people. It is the main challenge for the survival of humanity, which cannot help but see all states unite to achieve a common goal, before it is too late. Because, while the world population grows more every day - the threshold of 8 billion people on Earth was exceeded at the end of 2022 and that of 9 billion, according to the UN and the most accredited statistical models, will be reached in 2037, until it reaches the threshold of 9.7 billion in 2050 -, Earth Overshoot Day (the day on which humanity entirely consumes the resources produced by the Planet throughout the year) moves away every year from December 31st: this year it falls on August 1st. In this constantly evolving framework, each State has a role, which ideally fits into a major global strategy necessary to accelerate agricultural production, make it more efficient and closer to the demands of the population. Because, if it is true that we are still far from the eradication of poverty (particularly in Africa), as was foreseen by the UN Agenda 2030 at the end of this decade, in recent years giant strides have been made and people living in conditions of extreme poverty are 9.3% of the Earth's population, while in 1990 they were 38% (World Bank data). And those who see their income increase want to live like in Western countries, taken as a reference for lifestyles and nutrition.

It is clear, however, that the objective cannot be pursued with traditional agricultural and livestock breeding models. For several reasons. The first: agriculture is among the major causes of "global warming", emitting more greenhouse gases than cars, trucks, trains and planes taken together, releasing nitrogen oxide from fertilizers. Farming is no exception, considering methane emissions and water use (and the pollution of "blue gold"). Furthermore, extensive agriculture is among the main causes of the loss of biodiversity, not to mention the nitrogen oxide emissions generated by cutting down rainforests to make room for livestock farms and fields for cultivation: a practice that must be stopped immediately, because the damage caused is much greater than the benefits. What is needed, on the contrary, is to increase the yield of existing farms: if US, Canadian and Australian fields are extremely productive, in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe there is a long way to go. And this is where we can intervene massively to revolutionize world agriculture and ensure that the 9 billion people who will live on Earth in a few years can feed themselves in a healthy and sustainable way. A role that Italy can also live as a great protagonist.

The key is to allow everyone to eat like in Western countries, accommodating the growth in demand for proteins on tables all over the world. But we cannot think of doing so by increasing meat consumption, for the reasons explained previously: increasing the surface area and number of farms would be absolutely unsustainable. The only alternative is to develop an offer of vegetable proteins, massively using those derived from wheat, soya, carob, peas and legumes in general, whose proteins have a lower fat content, a low glycemic index and give a greater sense of satiety than animal proteins. A challenge that combines agriculture and applied research, but which at the same time must look at its economic sustainability: one cannot think of selling products based on vegetable proteins by selling them at the same prices (if not higher) than fine cuts of meat that come from farms. The market must be able to offer "fake chickens" that cost little, because if it is true that 90% of the world's population lives above the extreme poverty line, it is equally true that there are large layers of widespread poverty (even in the West), with millions of people struggling to make ends meet and who cannot afford to spend too much on alternative products to meat. Global agriculture must be able to unite, creating an interrelated system between States, inserted within an international supply chain that must enhance the characteristics of each individual country, inserted within an organic project that can no longer be postponed: intensive crops, coherent livestock farming, cereal production must always be considered included in this unavoidable context for every government and for every regulator, making it impossible to entrench oneself in autarchic positions. The increase in nutritional value requested by growing segments of the population makes it possible to carve out spaces for countries capable of generating products with superior and distinctive characteristics, specializing crops in such a way as to favor the real added value of the area in terms of vocation or biodiversity and implementing the role of technology in the fields but also increasing the share of agriculture intended for human consumption (today it is 55% of the total, the rest is intended for feed and biofuel) and reducing waste, given that around 50% of food produced in the world is wasted before reaching the table. And here the role of Italy comes into play, which must look at its role in the overall system in a strategic way. Because our country has unique characteristics. Let's think of the Italian tomato, which arrived in Europe in 1500 but which has a flavor and aroma unattainable in the rest of the world. Or with soft wheat flour, one of the least tenacious in the world, or with PDO Genoese basil. These products must be promoted with a recognizable brand on foreign markets, which takes advantage of a reputation built over the years, sales networks, promotional policies and efficient logistics and which is aimed at growing markets increasingly looking for "premium" products. According to recent research by McKinsey, the world of consumers is changing: young people between 18 and 24 years old, especially in emerging (or already established) countries such as India and Saudi Arabia, but also their parents, pensioners and a large part of the "middle class" are willing to spend more on recognizable and quality products for certain product categories. Among these, agri-food also stands out, a sector in which Italy can play a leading role, investing in the well-being of the Planet from all points of view. A path that also passes through the conversion to "organic" of all the country's agricultural production, a step which - given the lower profitability of Italian fields compared, for example, to those of North America - would cost less than competitors. If Italy took on this characteristic, recognizable throughout the world, producers and traders would compete to obtain its products, with a notable competitive advantage. But it is necessary for the government to financially help this conversion, in a pact with the farmers and the associations that represent them and to make its voice heard in Europe which, in the modest opinion of the writer, knows very well the needs of farmers in the North of the Old Continent but could be better acquainted with those of the Italian primary sector.